What are Long-term Insights Briefings?

What’s the issue?

Government agencies in New Zealand and around the world are sometimes criticised for short-term thinking – and there’s some truth in this. Policy professionals work for leaders who are elected for three-year terms and are under pressure to deliver policies quickly. And policy professionals’ workloads are high. These demands often crowd out longer-term considerations.

Added to that, thinking about the future is inherently difficult. You have to use today’s evidence to come up with scenarios for what might happen tomorrow: demographics, economic conditions, climate impacts and more.

How can officials get past these barriers to think longer term?

Why does it matter?

Some of the biggest issues facing governments and societies, like climate change and infrastructure, don’t have quick fixes. For example, a decision to invest today – say, in a programme to address intergenerational poverty – might not pay off for years.

That can make it harder for elected leaders to justify spending to voters, even when everyone agrees that acting now is likely to mean better outcomes and lower costs in the long run. In the worst case scenario, elected leaders can delay taking decisions to avoid future harm until it’s too late.

What’s the solution?

Around the world, governments are looking for ways to build long-term thinking into policymaking. In New Zealand, we have Long-term Insights Briefings (LTIBs). The Public Service Act 2020 created a requirement for government agencies to produce an LTIB at least once every three years.

Agencies get to pick an issue and use their LTIB to explore what the future might hold. Issues chosen so far include the impacts of everything from autonomous vehicles to the food sector to achieving data equity for Pacific peoples. Agencies use different kinds of evidence, including forecasts, to build future scenarios.

In theory at least, LTIBs create accountability. Government agencies are forced to carve out time and resources for future thinking, including working through different scenarios they might have to face. And with these scenarios out in the public, it makes it clearer whether elected leaders are actually taking decisions with the future in mind.

If you want to understand the kinds of ways policy professionals can think about the future, browsing a few LTIBs is a great option.